Lumber "shortage"

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Lily left the valley
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Re: Lumber "shortage"

Post by Lily left the valley »

It's definitely a flavor of "all of this has happened before, and it will all happen again" to me.

In the Ketchum article, they mentioned the killing blow was a strike down or repeal of some law related to short term rentals and occupancy rates overall. Once that was done away with, it was all systems go for insanity because it opened up more short term home rentals and Air BnBs. I've actually talked with Sean about how such could be avoided through governance, such as only X % of properties could be rentals or what have you, but seeing what happened with Ketchum...money will sway the government even when it's obvious what a blunder such change would cause.

I also recall something about there's only so much one can do to protect a home against things like being demolished to make way for a McMansion or such. It's up to the law to uphold the few places that allow for such protections, and it's not very often when money skirts that law that the damage can be or is undone. I know here, we have houses and other buildings that have been falling down for ages. So much so that's it become a burden on the town to reclaim some properties. As I've mentioned before, although we have a historical society, it has nothing to do with the houses at all. The property owners don't really suffer for not fixing up the homes. The most work the town has managed is the downtown area stuff which is mostly controlled by one older many who is a total slumlord. It's been very costly for them to try to get him to step up, and it's already cost the town three buildings that the city simply did not have funds to save after they legally took it from him after each became a hazard.

I'm curious to see how long it will take for these "shortages" to level out, and how far back to norm the prices might go or not.

I'm totally in agreement about what's going on not being sustainable. Time will tell when the bottom falls out. :violin:
--Proud member of the Industrious Cheapskate Club
--Currently pondering ways to encourage thoughtful restovation and discourage mindless renovation.

1918ColonialRevival
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Re: Lumber "shortage"

Post by 1918ColonialRevival »

Lily left the valley wrote: Wed Jun 16, 2021 5:12 pm
I also recall something about there's only so much one can do to protect a home against things like being demolished to make way for a McMansion or such. It's up to the law to uphold the few places that allow for such protections, and it's not very often when money skirts that law that the damage can be or is undone. I know here, we have houses and other buildings that have been falling down for ages. So much so that's it become a burden on the town to reclaim some properties. As I've mentioned before, although we have a historical society, it has nothing to do with the houses at all. The property owners don't really suffer for not fixing up the homes. The most work the town has managed is the downtown area stuff which is mostly controlled by one older many who is a total slumlord. It's been very costly for them to try to get him to step up, and it's already cost the town three buildings that the city simply did not have funds to save after they legally took it from him after each became a hazard.
That happened about 10 years ago and set a dangerous precedent. Before that, the only way a property could be acquired through eminent domain was if it was needed for a public works project or the like (new highway, military base, etc.). Now, if some deep pockets developer decides they want your land and you don't want to sell, they can still get it through these backdoor channels.

Baltimore is a classic example of what happens when a locality seizes too much property. The city now owns more than 30,000 abandoned buildings, most acquired through foreclosure due to tax delinquency. This doesn't include all of the schools, office buildings, warehouses, etc. once operated by the city that are now sitting idle. None of these buildings are maintained and some have been on the property books for decades while they slowly fall into ruin. One that breaks my heart is the old Eastern Female High School - a beautiful 1870 Italianate brick building that has been allowed to badly deteriorate due to neglect and vandalism. Here's a picture taken in the 1970s: https://mht.maryland.gov/nr/NRDetail.aspx?NRID=55. Compare it with these shots from 2019: https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=Bss9WWmLCH8.

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Re: Lumber "shortage"

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Detroit is a classic cautionary tale of urban blight.

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Re: Lumber "shortage"

Post by Gothichome »

Gothichome wrote: Sat Jun 19, 2021 11:24 am Detroit is a classic cautionary tale of urban blight.
As far as the great lumber shortage, prices have started to fall because no one (at retail) is buying lumber. The masses have refused to pay ransom level prices. At least in our area.

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Lily left the valley
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Re: Lumber "shortage"

Post by Lily left the valley »

Gothichome wrote: Sat Jun 19, 2021 11:37 amAs far as the great lumber shortage, prices have started to fall because no one (at retail) is buying lumber. The masses have refused to pay ransom level prices. At least in our area.
This is great news to my ears. :dance:
--Proud member of the Industrious Cheapskate Club
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1918ColonialRevival
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Re: Lumber "shortage"

Post by 1918ColonialRevival »

Prices are starting to dip a little around here, though they've still got a long way to go before they return to normal, or at least what was pre-pandemic normal. All of the local lumber yards around here have inventory and from what I can see, not much of it is moving. Hopefully if it sits long enough, the prices will continue to drop.

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Lily left the valley
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Re: Lumber "shortage"

Post by Lily left the valley »

When we ran an errand that happened to take us past our local National Lumber store, I noticed lumber sitting too. Fortunately we don't have immediate need, so hopefully things will have evened out a bit by then.

Related, this video popped up in the right column video list on my Youtube even though I was watching a video about something completely different at the time. It covers a few of the different reasons I've heard floated, but explains them in much better detail that the articles I'd seen prior that just glossed over their list of reasons for shortages without much backstory. Why There are Now So Many Shortages (It's Not COVID)
--Proud member of the Industrious Cheapskate Club
--Currently pondering ways to encourage thoughtful restovation and discourage mindless renovation.

phil
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Re: Lumber "shortage"

Post by phil »

gas is going up here but I think the price per barrel is not that high. i think the banks and Amazon are still making money too

SarahFair
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Re: Lumber "shortage"

Post by SarahFair »

We are having a HUGE issue in our city right now with LLCs and property management holders, specifically two right now.

One property management holder owns over 1000 properties in the county, mostly in our city. He has a ton, and I mean A TON (like neighborhoods full) of historic homes, and hes a full on slum lord. We are talking rat and mold infested, walls falling in slum lord..
It's so bad, I was talking to some surveyors who brought up a huge area he owns, they were saying how the woods back there were pretty dangerous, full of needles, used condoms, mattresses, trash, etc.

Many of our historic homes around here are being ruined because he refuses to clean them up.
Code enforcement refuses to do anything..
It's old politics at play here. His family (along with most of the city) has been here for over 100 years. The city claims, we cite him, but when someone has had family that has previously made laws that let's people like this get away with it, then they now have family in the courts, our hands become tied.

There are so many small time property managers that are specifically coming to our town to restore homes and either rent them out or resell them.
They have been our biggest allies in trying to push this guy out, but its hard when he literally owns half the town.


The other big property owner owns SEVERAL LLCs through an attorney's office. He develops 80% of the new neighborhoods in the county (which there are A LOT). He donates land to the city and county all the time to get in bed with them. He just donated a lot of land to the city next to a river for a park and is donating land to the county for a new jail, right in our newly revitalized downtown area..
He also just bought the 14 acres of woods right behind my house.
I dont trust all his donations. He is super shady.
I know one instance a man who owned a small grading business had a huge house and shop, during the recession he fell behind on his house note, but worked a deal out with the bank and was having a huge sale at his home/shop trying to recoup some of the money to get ahead. The LLC owner stopped by, asked questions under the guise neighborly chit chat..
He knows some of the bigwigs at the bank that owned the mortgage, went and got them to call his loan in, the guy lost his house, and guess who bought it and flipped it..

When he's building a new neighborhood, if there are no comps for the area, he'll buy a couple of the houses for a higher price than he wants, under a different name so his realtors can have something to go off of and convince people they are getting such a good deal on their home, because "look what these people paid!"

Its so interwoven around here, you dont know if you're talking to someone's cousin, business partner,, grandaddy's best friends son... You have have a hard time figuring out who to turn to and almost can't trust anyone :?
And this is small town life, think of it on a grand scale :doh:

1918ColonialRevival
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Re: Lumber "shortage"

Post by 1918ColonialRevival »

Unfortunately, that's not an uncommon situation. Political positions in a lot of towns and cities tend to be inherited if you know what I mean. As someone who grew up in a small Southern town, I saw it all, including a county sheriff who literally sold his job to someone else for cash. I know how frustrating it can be when it seems that everyone in a position of authority is somebody's uncle's cousin's brother-in-law. I believe that's why The Dukes of Hazzard was so popular with everyone in my area when I was young - it was something we could all relate to, especially the local corruption!

One note on lumber - I read an article (not sure of it's accuracy, but it sounded encouraging) stating that lumber futures have fallen over 50% in the last two months due to none of it selling. It might take a few more months before we see much of a change, but it's encouraging. I just feel sorry for the ones who harvest the lumber and who run the sawmills, as they aren't the ones who were engaging in the price gouging, but will probably see most of the impact.

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